“Politico rounded up some of the best minds and biggest names in foreign policy, history and economics to tell us:
What are the consequences of the Brexit vote five months from now (on Election Day)—and five years from now?“
“In five years, there will no longer be a United Kingdom. Scotland will be independent and part of EU. Less certain but quite possibly Wales will be independent and part of EU too and Northern Ireland will join Ireland. ” – Richard Haass is the president of the Council on Foreign Relations
“The world is enjoying a populist moment. Like all such moments, there is a mob quality to the Brexiteers, Trumpistas and others, but their sentiments rest on real complaints. If national leaders are committed to addressing the real problems that lie beneath the populism — a growing underclass, tides of refugees, and anger at government (not necessarily in that order) — then Brexit will be a wake-up call. Otherwise, it could be 1933 all over again, with years of fractured politics, anger, dangerous decisions, isolationism and worse ahead. It’s up to those who wish for the crown of leadership to choose.” – Danielle Pletka is senior vice president for foreign and defense policy studies at the American Enterprise Institute
“Russia will take satisfaction in the fragmentation to its west” – John McLaughlin is distinguished practitioner in residence at the Merrill Center for Strategic Studies at Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, and was the United States’ acting director of Central Intelligence in 2004
“The earthquake is political: With Cameron gone, UKIP’s voters will fold back into the Tory Party and the far right will take over the British government. This will provoke a new referendum leading to Scottish independence. Meanwhile right-wing anti-euro parties are calling for exit referenda in Holland and France. The political division between north and south Europe—as Spain, Portugal and Italy move Left—will deepen. Over time, as they apply to the United Kingdom, the structures of EU law, regulation, fiscal transfers, support for science, open commerce, open borders and human rights built over four decades will be eroded and ultimately, in important respects, undone.” – James Galbraith is an economist and author of “Welcome to the Poisoned Chalice: The Destruction of Greece and the Future of Europe”, published June 21 by Yale University Press
“We could yet see European countries doing what they have done for centuries—physically attack one another. Brexit represents a major, potentially long-lasting tragedy for the UK, the EU and the rest of the world. The fact that an otherwise sane politician could have instigated this vote for political advantage, naively convinced it would go his way, leaves one dumbstruck.
David Cameron’s blunder will surely enter the Guinness Book of Records.” – Laurence Kotlikoff, an economist at Boston University, is running for president at www.kotlikoff2016.com